Shippers hold to 5.5% view

Shippers hold to 5.5% view

A group of Thai exporters is maintaining its export forecast of 5.5% growth this year, despite strong growth of 17.6% in January.

Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said exporters are still worried about foreign exchange volatility, protectionist measures by the US, possible retaliation by US trade partners and looming container shortages and port congestion.

Ms Ghanyapad said the TNSC's forecast is based on a foreign exchange rate of 31.50 baht to the US dollar, crude oil prices of $60-65 per barrel, an improving global economy and higher crop prices.

"Despite February's surge, we believe Thailand's exports still have to brave out a spate of risks, particularly from the US dollar's weakness, which has played a key factor in the baht's gain of 2.88% since early this year," she said. "The US's protectionist trade measures, as well as possible retaliatory ones from its partners, are also key areas of concern."

The Commerce Ministry reported last month that the country's customs-cleared exports rose 17.6% year-on-year in January to US$20.1 billion, the highest increase in 62 months.

The export surge was led by cars and parts, computers and parts, rubber products, plastic pellets, chemicals, finished oil, electrical circuits, machinery and parts, and steel and steel products.

Imports in January surged 24.3% from a year earlier to $20.2 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $119 million in January.

The Commerce Ministry said demand from key markets remained strong, while the baht's strength had scant impact on shipments.

Exports rose to all major markets, especially South Asia, where shipments surged 26.1% year-on-year last month.

Also seeing strong growth were exports to Japan (up 26.3%), the US (11.3%), the EU (8.9%), Asean (14.3%) and the CLMV countries (18.4%).

Shipments to Australia, the Middle East, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States also grew.

Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products rose for the 15th straight month in January, up 16.2% year-on-year at $2.86 billion, led by rice, tapioca products, sugar, frozen poultry, and frozen and canned seafood.

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